Modelos matemáticos

Predictive Mathematical Models of the COVID-19 Pandemic
Underlying Principles and Value of Projections


¿Qué es el número de reproducción? ¿Qué representa? ¿Cómo se calcula? ¿Cómo se modifica con intervenciones preventivas? ¿Qué es la inmunidad de rebaño?

Número de reproducción


El Ro se refiere al número «básico», sin intervención, en una población totalmente susceptible. Una aproximación sencilla para calcular R.

Aspectos matemáticos


Graphic for COVID-19

10 Tips for Making Sense of COVID-19 Models for Decision-Making


Transparency, Reproducibility, and Validation of COVID-19 Projection Models


https://robmoss.github.io/seir-demo/

100% 
20 
Equations 
dS 
40 
80 
Parameters 
100 
120 
Ro:2 
140 
160 
180 
dt 
=ßl. 
dt 
dt 
dt 
OR 
Latent period 1/2 day 
Infectious period 
( Permanent 
Duration of resistance 
Mixing exponent (q) _ 1 (homogeneous) 
Initial susceptibility (S(t = 10000 
Days: 180

http://gabgoh.github.io/COVID/index.html

Day 
218 
Susceptible 
Population not 
(8769%) 
immune to 
O -76/ day 
disease. 
Exposed 
Population 
currently in 
O -26/ day 
incubation. 
Infected 
Number of 
342 (0.00%) 
infections actively 
O -17 'day 
circulating. 
Removed 
Population no 
longer infectious 860.534 (1229%) 
due to isolation or : 
. O -196/ day 
immunity. 
Recovered 
Full recoveries. 
Hospitalized 
Active 
hospitalizations. 
O -281 /day 
Fatalities 
Deaths. 
25/ day 
linear scale 
200,000 
150,000 
100,000 
Day o 
Intervention on day 
100 
(drag me) 
—Ro = 2.20 
First death 
to decrease transmission 
by 
Rt = 0.73* 
Peak: 74,739 
hospitalizations

https://www.khanacademy.org/science/health-and-medicine/current-issues-in-health-and-medicine/ebola-outbreak/pi/modelling-an-epidemic

Modeling an epidemic 
Population parameters 
Size: 
Initial immunity 
Initial infections: 1 
Contact rate: 4 
Infection parameters 
Infection rate (0/0): 10 
Disease period: S 
Mortality rate 2 
RO = Contact rate x Infection rate x Disease period 
The percentage of contacts between an infected 
person and susceptible person that result in the 
disease being transmitted. 
Start