Modelos matemáticos

Predictive Mathematical Models of the COVID-19 Pandemic
Underlying Principles and Value of Projections

¿Qué es el número de reproducción? ¿Qué representa? ¿Cómo se calcula? ¿Cómo se modifica con intervenciones preventivas? ¿Qué es la inmunidad de rebaño?

Número de reproducción

El Ro se refiere al número «básico», sin intervención, en una población totalmente susceptible. Una aproximación sencilla para calcular R.

Aspectos matemáticos

Graphic for COVID-19

10 Tips for Making Sense of COVID-19 Models for Decision-Making

Transparency, Reproducibility, and Validation of COVID-19 Projection Models

https://robmoss.github.io/seir-demo/

100% 20 Equations dS 40 80 Parameters 100 120 Ro:2 140 160 180 dt =ßl. dt dt dt OR Latent period 1/2 day Infectious period ( Permanent Duration of resistance Mixing exponent (q) _ 1 (homogeneous) Initial susceptibility (S(t = 10000 Days: 180

http://gabgoh.github.io/COVID/index.html

Day 218 Susceptible Population not (8769%) immune to O -76/ day disease. Exposed Population currently in O -26/ day incubation. Infected Number of 342 (0.00%) infections actively O -17 'day circulating. Removed Population no longer infectious 860.534 (1229%) due to isolation or : . O -196/ day immunity. Recovered Full recoveries. Hospitalized Active hospitalizations. O -281 /day Fatalities Deaths. 25/ day linear scale 200,000 150,000 100,000 Day o Intervention on day 100 (drag me) —Ro = 2.20 First death to decrease transmission by Rt = 0.73* Peak: 74,739 hospitalizations

https://www.khanacademy.org/science/health-and-medicine/current-issues-in-health-and-medicine/ebola-outbreak/pi/modelling-an-epidemic

Modeling an epidemic Population parameters Size: Initial immunity Initial infections: 1 Contact rate: 4 Infection parameters Infection rate (0/0): 10 Disease period: S Mortality rate 2 RO = Contact rate x Infection rate x Disease period The percentage of contacts between an infected person and susceptible person that result in the disease being transmitted. Start
https://www.covid19es.org/simulador
Fig. 1
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6002118/